This project, commissioned by the G7, is the first ever climate and fragility assessment of a specific region. It is the product of an intensive two-year period of research across Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria. The assessment draws on long-term hydrological data from the Lake Chad basin and brand new analysis of 20 years of satellite observations. It also builds on more than 200 interviews with community members, including past and present members of armed groups, experts and officials. The study provides entry points and guiding principles to address climate-fragility risks in the Lake Chad region and beyond, it also underscores the universal need for risk-informed responses to complex crises if current development goals are ever to be met.
This assessment was led by adelphi in cooperation with the Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)/Centre Européen de Recherche et d’Enseignement des Géosciences de l’Environnement (CEREGE), France, and local conflict analysts from the Lake Chad region.